India’s GDP growth set to slow to 6-6.8%, economic survey predicts: 10 points

1. The economic study forecasts base gross domestic product, or GDP, growth of 6.5% in real terms in fiscal year 2024. The pace would still make India the fastest growing of the major economies.

2. “The projection is broadly comparable to estimates from multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, IMF and AfDB and by the RBI, at the national level. The actual outcome for real GDP growth is likely to be between 6% and 6%, depending on the trajectory of global economic and political developments,” says the Economic Survey.

3. The government hopes that India’s GDP growth of between 6 and 6.8% – which is still lower than the 7% forecast for the current fiscal year – would be possible thanks to certain advantages the country has over other countries, amid the economic disruption caused by the covid19 pandemic.

4. In making the forecast, the economic study cited limited health and economic impacts to the rest of the world from China’s current Covid surge, leaving supply chains intact in many countries, including India.

5. According to the economic survey, more money is likely to flow to India as advanced economies face “recession trends” while Indian inflation remains below 6%. This will lead to “an improvement in the animal spirit” and will lead to more private sector investment, according to the government survey that examines the economy’s performance over the past year.

6. However, recession fears have been heightened by the massive layoffs from Big Tech in recent weeks.

7. India has recovered quickly from the pandemic, the government said. Economic growth will be supported by “solid domestic demand and a recovery in capital investment,” he said. According to the survey, inflation peaked at 7.8% in April 2022.

8. But the risks are also high, mainly due to global factors. A long period of inflation has forced central banks around the world to tighten financial conditions, the survey said, adding that this tightening is now visible in the form of a slowdown in economic activity in advanced economies.

9. “Another risk to the outlook comes from the ongoing monetary tightening. As the pace of interest rate hikes has slowed, major central banks have reaffirmed their aggressive stance on inflation, according to the Economic Survey. .

10. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union budget tomorrow. It would be the fifth budget since 2019. It could change income tax brackets to relieve the burden on the country’s middle class and increase spending for the poor with programs such as rural jobs.

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