Ukraine is fighting Russia on many fronts. Just as victory in the battlefield is very difficult to achieve, similarly diplomatic benefits are also being achieved these days.
Western countries have had strong support for Ukraine since the Russian attack last year. But now the pro-Ukraine coalition is beginning to split.
Ukraine’s old ally America has approved $110 billion more economic and military aid. Over the weekend, Congress rejected the government’s proposal for additional $6 billion aid to Ukraine.
Some Republican leaders are of the opinion that the aid being given to Ukraine should be stopped.
Others believe it should be given only if President Joe Biden spends more on US border security.
Biden has assured Ukraine of an additional $24 billion in aid. It seems to be in trouble due to America’s internal conflict.
On the other hand, Ukraine may lose another ally in the form of the Atlantic.
elections in slovakia
Robert Fico’s Smar Party has won most of the seats in Slovakia’s elections.
However, they still need to form an alliance. Former Prime Minister Robert Fico is seen as pro-Russian and anti-Ukraine. He had run his campaign on the election promise of ending military aid to Ukraine.
He said, “People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine.” Now it can be said that two EU countries along with Hungary’s Viktor Orban are ready to veto the EU’s collective effort to support Ukraine.
Elections are also going to be held soon in Ukraine’s neighbor Poland. Elections are also going to be held in neighboring Poland soon.
There too, doubts are being raised about supporting Ukraine. The ruling Law and Justice Party there has promised to ban the import of cheap grains from Ukraine. Farmers of Poland are opposing this import.
President Andrzej Duda has compared Ukraine to a drowning man who is dragging down his rescuer. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland is no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine. However, he later retracted his statement.
Therefore, it seems that electoral politics has now started interfering in support of Ukraine. Similarly, there are other issues too, be it the inflation crisis or the climate emergency.
Ukraine at the United Nations
It was also observed that Ukraine was not even on the top of the agenda of the United Nations General Assembly.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech in the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council did not generate the same discussion as before. Diplomats noted that the Ukrainian delegation has also lost its luster, while leaders from the Global South are pushing their own agendas.
All this is what Russian strategists had been expecting for a long time.
Diplomats believe Vladimir Putin wants to wait out the West and continue fighting until international support for Ukraine wanes and he seeks a political solution.
Western leaders insist that they have the ability to stay the course and show more strategic patience than Russia expects.
Britain’s Foreign Minister James Cleverley told Parliament’s magazine this week that international fatigue with the war was a big deal. It was something we had to deal with. Recognizing that it was putting pressure on countries around the world.
He said that if Western support for Ukraine decreases, then those pressures, whether economic or political, will become worse. It is very difficult and painful. But if we falter it will be more difficult and painful.
To break this perception, European Union foreign ministers visited Ukraine on Monday. These people had met collectively for the first time to reiterate and show support.
What is the EU’s concern?
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told the BBC that the EU would continue its military support. It has provided help worth five billion pounds so far.
He said that one thing is clear that for the European people, Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a threat to our existence. We will have to react accordingly. However, he admitted that he was concerned by Congress’s decision to halt future aid.
The argument that diplomats are giving in response is that Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance on the battlefield. He says that countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have started accepting this argument.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told journalists, “What is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than Ukraine. It is about stability and predictability of the world.”
Ukraine is playing a long game. Prominent figures in the government have long speculated that Western support may wane over time.
They know that the real test of the unity of the Western countries may come later on two important occasions. The first of these is if Donald Trump is elected President again next year. If they cut American aid, Ukraine will have to take a big decision as to how long it can continue the fight.
Second, if the war somehow ends, the allies may find it difficult to unify with those agreements. Which may be needed to reach a political solution.