Global economy seen facing a challenging year -Eurochambres

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The Eurochambres report, based on the responses of business and trade organizations representing around 70% of world GDP, shows long-term geopolitical tensions and instability as the top challenges for the global economy this the year.

Participants from the US and the UK see rising inflation caused by rising food and energy prices among the top challenges, while energy security is of particular concern in -European Union.

Survey participants were asked about their expectations for real GDP growth in their country or region for 2023, which were compared to benchmark forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

American and Chinese participants have real GDP growth estimates similar to those of the IMF, while the British Chambers of Commerce predict a contraction of 1.3% for the economy, much more pessimistic than the growth of 0.3 % foreseen by the IMF.

In the euro area, the forecast is largely in line with the IMF. However, there are significant differences between countries. The Spanish Chamber of Commerce and the Italian Union of Chambers of Commerce Unioncamere are optimistic for their countries’ growth compared to the IMF forecast, while the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry DIHK predicts a bigger slowdown for Germany’s growth than the IMF.

However, the DIHK’s forecast of a 3.0% year-on-year GDP contraction in 2023 goes back to the autumn and the economic environment has improved considerably in recent months, with some economists now they say the euro zone’s biggest economy can avoid recession.

The 2023 Eurochambres global economic survey was conducted during November and December 2022.

(Reporting by Christian Kraemer and Maria Martinez; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

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