image source, GETTY IMAGES
Ukrainian generals say they have ‘penetrated’ Russia’s frontline in the south.
We have tried to find out how much progress the Ukrainian military forces have made and what are the signs of future successes on the frontline.
Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in early June to push back the Russian forces from the land they had occupied. Ukraine attacked three places on the 965 kilometer long frontline.
This area south-east of Zaporozhye city is still very important strategically.
The attack was launched in this direction from the Azov Sea, and if successful, it would completely cut the supply lines from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don to Crimea.
However, apart from the areas around Robotine and Verbav villages in the Zaporozhye region, no significant progress has been made on this front so far. It is highlighted in purple color in the map above.
If Ukraine succeeds in cutting off this key supply route, it will make it impossible for Russia to maintain its large military fleet in Crimea, which it captured in 2014.
Despite significant obstacles, there is solid evidence of Ukrainian troops penetrating Russian defenses on the southern front.
We have verified seven social media videos from Verbav on the frontline.
Four of these videos show that Ukrainian forces have penetrated the Russian security cordon in the northern areas of Verbov.
However, these videos only show intrusions. This does not prove that Ukraine has taken control over these areas.
So far only the Ukrainian infantry is advancing, and we are not seeing Ukrainian armored units moving in, or taking advantage of the gap and gaining ground.
What are the obstacles in Ukraine’s path?
Russia saw this retaliation coming long ago and has spent months building a multi-layered security system that is among the most difficult in the world to break.
This is what they look like from space – several rows of obstacles, trenches, bunkers and minefields… all covered with artillery. Its so-called ‘dragon teeth’ are anti-tank barbed wire made of concrete.
Large landmines have slowed Ukraine’s progress.
These tunnels are so spread that at some places there are five tunnels in one square meter.
Ukraine’s first attempt to cross these tunnels failed in the month of June. At that time, Ukraine’s modern weapons received from Western countries became useless due to these landmines and were burnt.
The Ukrainian Infantry also suffered a similar fate and many soldiers lost their lives while trying to cross the tunnels.
Kiev has since begun clearing these tunnels, sometimes at night and sometimes under fire. Therefore, progress in this is slow so far.
Ukraine’s tanks and armored vehicles are at risk from Russian mines, drones and anti-tank missiles. The video below has been verified by BBC Verify. In the video, the Challenger 2 tank found from Britain is seen burning near Robotine.
Ukrainian troops in large numbers will be able to advance only when the roads are cleared and when the Russian artillery capabilities here are weakened.
What’s next in Ukraine’s response?
Dr Marina Miron, of the War Studies Department at King’s College London, says, “The biggest problem with Ukraine at the moment is that they will have to start recruiting more soldiers into the army.”
Meanwhile, Russia is also busy strengthening itself. This battlefield is dynamic, conditions are changing every day, and Russia can still reverse Ukraine’s advance.
We have geolocated video from a Russian drone which supports reports that Russia has deployed elite air forces ‘VDV’ close to the town of Verbov. This is a step taken by Russia whose purpose is to avoid any loss due to retaliatory attacks by Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian military continues to face resistance from Russian forces on the battlefield,” says Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia expert at the London-based think tank RUSI.
“In addition to firing artillery and drones, Russian military forces are also using electronic warfare on a large scale, the purpose of which is to prevent Ukrainian signals and drones from functioning.”
Ukraine has barely made 10 percent progress in the coastal region, but the reality is far different.
image source, reuters
Ukrainian soldiers near the village of Robotyn on the southern front
After facing fierce attacks for three consecutive months, the Russian army is now tired and possibly demoralized. These also include long-range attacks targeting Russia’s supply lines.
If Ukraine penetrates Russia’s remaining defensive lines and reaches the city of Tokmak as quickly as possible, Russia’s rail and road supply routes to Crimea will be within reach of its artillery.
If they can do this, then this counter-offensive can be judged a qualified success.
This probably won’t put an end to the war, which is likely to last until 2024 and beyond. But this would seriously weaken Russia’s war efforts and leave Ukraine in a stronger position whenever peace talks begin.
But time is running out for Ukraine. Within a few weeks, the rainy season will arrive there, which will turn the roads into mud and will become a hindrance in Ukraine’s progress.
Uncertainty regarding the US presidential elections is also a big factor. If a Republican candidate becomes President of America, it could lead to a major cut in military aid to Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that he has to stand firm in a difficult situation. Ukrainians know that they have to make this counter-action successful.