A woman walks past graffiti depicting a Ukrainian soldier firing a missile, in Kyiv on January 25. The Russians are fighting an intense air war, but it mostly involves missiles, drones and an anti-aircraft system. Traditional airstrikes by manned warplanes were relatively rare.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
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A woman walks past graffiti depicting a Ukrainian soldier firing a missile, in Kyiv on January 25. The Russians are fighting an intense air war, but it mostly involves missiles, drones and an anti-aircraft system. Traditional airstrikes by manned warplanes were relatively rare.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Russia and Ukraine are waging a fierce battle in the sky. Russia rolls out drones and missiles. Ukraine often shoots them down with its own missiles, and carries out its own drone strikes.
Yet one thing makes this battle distinctive from all previous air wars of the past century: pilots are rare. And this goes very much against the traditional perception of aerial combat.
“Top Gun: Maverick is nominated for an Oscar this year for Best Film. And here we are, watching an air war taking place. And it looks very different from anything we see in it Top Gun,” he said Kelly Griecowith the Stimson Centera Washington think tank.
“There [piloted] aircraft that still fly sometimes. But we are talking about a very small number of outbreaks compared to past wars,” said Grieco, who keeps a close eye on the air war.
When Russia invaded last February, its air campaign initially appeared to be straight from the standard playbook.
Russia has sent waves of pilots in advanced fighter jets to bomb Ukraine. The almost universal assumption was that Russia’s powerful air force would quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller force and establish air superiority.
Ukrainian military personnel demonstrate a downed Russian drone during a press conference in the capital Kyiv on December 15. Russia has been firing drones and missiles at Ukraine’s energy systems for the past four months.
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Ukrainian military personnel display a downed Russian drone during a press conference in the capital Kyiv on December 15. Russia has been firing drones and missiles at Ukraine’s energy systems for the past four months.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Russia largely abandons manned warplanes
But Ukraine made the most of its limited Soviet-era air defenses, downing dozens of Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first few months of the war. Since then, Russia has, to the surprise of many, largely stopped sending manned aircraft into Ukrainian airspace.
“We looked at that for the first three months of the war going on, ‘Why are the Russians not applying the basic principles of air doctrine,'” said a retired US Air Force officer. Peter Gersten.
He knows these principles well. Gersten flew combat missions as an F-16 pilot early in his career, and later commanded US drone operations in the Middle East. He has seen drones assume a prominent role in the US air campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. But piloted US warplanes played a significant role in those conflicts as well, and the US alone dominated the skies.
Gersten says it is still not entirely clear why the Russian air force fared so poorly. But he stresses that Russia still has well over 1,000 advanced fighter jets, with well-trained pilots, which are not being sent into the skies over Ukraine.
“Russian pilots are some of the best pilots in the world,” said Gersten. “And they are also some of the most disciplined pilots in the world.”
At least for now, Russia has chosen to keep these pilots and their planes on the sidelines. Russia is relying on missiles and drones, which are much cheaper and easier to replace.
Ukraine has a much smaller number of fighter jets, mostly MiG-29 which date to the Soviet era. Ukraine employs them in combat, but little.
“What the Russians have learned is that this is a war where it’s much more sustainable to use unmanned assets, whether those unmanned assets are drones or missiles,” Grieco said.
This Russian tactic is also forcing Ukraine to make a tough choice. Ukraine has a limited number of air defense missiles, which it has been using to shoot down Russian drones. However Russia gets these drones from Iran, maybe for as little as $20,000. It is a cost-benefit ratio that favors Russia.
If Ukraine exhausts its missile supply while targeting Russian drones and missiles, this could clear the way for Russian fighter jet pilots to return to Ukraine, with a greatly reduced threat that they are killed.
Ukrainians have collected the remains of more than a thousand missiles and rockets fired by Russian forces at and around the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The Ukrainians say they will use them as evidence in any future war crimes prosecution.
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Ukrainians have collected the remains of more than a thousand missiles and rockets fired by Russian forces at and around the northeastern city of Kharkiv. The Ukrainians say they will use them as evidence in any future war crimes prosecution.
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
Drones assume more non-combat roles
Meanwhile, drones are playing an increasing role in non-combat operations on the Ukrainian side.
Consider the Canadian-US company, Draganflywhich has been making drones for civilian use since the 1990s. CEO Cameron Chell says it has never done business in a war zone until last year.
“We were contacted by an American (aid group) who couldn’t get their ambulances into besieged cities and we asked if they could use our drones,” said Chell, who is based in Vancouver.
He noted that Draganfly drones “can carry sensitive pharmaceuticals, like insulin. That’s how we started there. And then it’s just expanded exponentially.”
About 50 Draganfly drones have been sent to various organizations in Ukraine for a wide variety of missions. They conduct search and rescue operations, detect land mines from the air, and deliver blood and other critical supplies to forward areas.
Chell says this war is showing how a smaller country can use civilian drones, creatively and effectively, when facing an enemy with a larger, more powerful traditional air force.
“Before, you needed massive systems, you needed manned aircraft. Now you have $10,000, $20,000 and $50,000, even $2,000 impact systems,” he said.
“We see budgets and thinking from all defense forces around the world now changing rapidly in the adoption and use of small drones,” added Chell. “Not just for war fighting, but actually for logistics and medical and humanitarian aid.”
Still, Ukraine wants more fighter jets to bolster its limited number of warplanes. Specifically, Ukraine wants the American F-16, which typically requires years of pilot training. And like other Ukrainian fighter jets, it would be vulnerable to Russia’s anti-aircraft systems.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told NPR that he does not think these reasons are valid.
“When I ask about the F-16, I never heard about a problem with spare parts or with the supply chain. The answer was usually, ‘Oleksii, you know, it’s a very long period of training courses for your pilots. .”
But President Biden was clear. The US is sending in air defenses, but not fighter jets – which would put more vulnerable pilots and expensive planes in the sky.
Greg Myre is NPR’s national security correspondent. Follow him @gregmyre1.
